Derive.xyz Market Insights: May 30th 2025
BTC and ETH Soar, Volatility Shifts, and Bullish Trends Ahead
May 30, 2025 By Dr. Sean Dawson
May has been a standout month for the major cryptocurrencies, especially ETH, driven by the recent Pectra upgrade, which sets the stage for scalability and institutional growth.
BTC has surged 12%, moving from $94,500 to $106,000 over May. While ETH has seen a massive rise of 48%, climbing from $1,790 to $2,670 today.
Volatility
BTC volatility has remained relatively stable, rising just 1% from 36% to 37% over the past month, with a high of 50% during price movements.
BTC 7 day ATM IV over the last month
Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata
ETH volatility has experienced a significant shift, rising from around 60% at the start of the month to around 70% following the price surge in early May. This suggests that ETH has entered a new volatility regime.
ETH 7 day ATM IV over the last month
Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata
Skew (market sentiment)
BTC 30-day 25 delta skew has remained relatively flat, indicating neutral market sentiment.
BTC 30 day 25 delta skew
Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata
ETH, however, has shown a strong bullish shift, rising from -3% to +5% over the past month, signaling a return to bullish sentiment for Ethereum.
ETH 30 day 25 delta skew
Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata
Predictions
There is a 6% chance that Bitcoin will surpass $150K by the end of the year, and a 15% chance that it will exceed $135K.
For Ethereum, there is a 12% chance of exceeding $4K by the end of the year, reclaiming its previous highs, and a 20% chance of surpassing $3.5K.
Key Developments to Track:
- Progress on favorable regulations like the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act could bring more institutional adoption. It is set to regulate crypto platforms under the Bank Secrecy Act and exempt certain DeFi operations from SEC oversight. Further advancements in this area could improve price action.
- Circle's proposed IPO could signal a renaissance for stablecoins, by injecting renewed legitimacy and investor confidence in digital assets. As one of the most prominent issuers of stablecoins through its USDC token, Circle's move to go public signals a maturation of the stablecoin industry and could act as a catalyst for broader adoption across both retail and institutional markets.
- While uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs will continue, the likelihood of tariffs being enforced is likely to decrease, improving market sentiment.
As we head into June, the outlook remains bullish with higher volatility expected. Stay tuned for more updates as we continue to track these key developments.