Derive Market Insights: May 13th 2025

BTC Price Surge: 40% Chance of Hitting $105K by May 30

May 13, 2025, By Nick Forster

It's been a week of major price movements across the crypto market, with the majors seeing impressive gains. BTC is up 8.6% for the week while ETH increased 37.2%, continuing its bullish trend. Alts like XRP, SOL, and DOGE saw impressive gains, up 19.2%, 18.6%, and 35.7%, respectively.

Volatility has been rising, with BTC increasing from 36% last week to 40% today, peaking at 46%. ETH volatility has been even more dramatic, soaring from 52% last week to a high of 87%, before settling at 77% today.

BTC 7-day Implied Volatility

ETH 7-day Implied Volatility

What’s fueling this bullish sentiment? While no single factor stands out, there have been key developments. The China/US trade deal announced by the White House has signaled a potential cooling in the trade war, providing a boost to the market. ETH’s Pectra upgrade successfully launched, aiming to improve user experience and attract institutional interest, which is likely contributing to ETH's price surge. 

And Coinbase was added to the S&P 500. This milestone highlights the growing mainstream adoption of digital assets, signaling increased confidence in the sector.

Price predictions have shifted:

• BTC: 40% chance of surpassing $105K by May 30, up from 16% last week. A 20% chance BTC hits $110K by the end of May (up from 7%).
• ETH: 9% chance of hitting  above $3,000 by May’s end, up from just 0.5% last week. While the likelihood of ETH surpassing $2,800 by May’s end has risen to 17%, compared to 1% last week.

On Derive.xyz, traders are positioning for heightened volatility, with 46.7% of all BTC premiums are calls bought, and 37.7% are puts over the past 24 hours, indicating mixed market sentiment but betting on significant price moves.

BTC Premium Volumes

For ETH, 42.2% of premiums are calls bought, and 30.6% are puts, reflecting similar expectations of volatility.

ETH Premium Volumes

This week’s moves reflect the growing optimism in the market, as both BTC and ETH look poised for further price action.