Price Recap

April 1, 2025 By Sean Dawson

Volatility Surges in ETH and BTC During Early March 2025

Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) experienced significant price swings in early March 2025, highlighting a period of intense market volatility.

Ethereum (ETH):

• ETH saw its largest monthly 1-hour gain of +10.13% on March 2, jumping from $2,232.39 to $2,458.51.
• On the same day, ETH also logged its biggest 1-day surge for the month, soaring +13.64% from $1,806.63 to $2,520.53.
• However, volatility quickly reversed. On March 3, ETH recorded its steepest 1-day decline of the month of -14.86%, plunging from $2,520.53 to $2,145.92.
• Its largest for the month 1-hour drop came later, on March 10, with a -4.32% fall from $2,006.72 to $1,920.04.

Bitcoin (BTC):

• BTC’s strongest 1-hour rise was +4.44% on March 2, rising from $87,566.06 to $91,455.27.
• That same day, BTC also marked its largest 1-day gain, climbing +9.49% from $82,355.49 to $94,280.44.
• But the following day, March 3, BTC posted its sharpest 1-day drop of -8.66%, falling to $86,113.60.
• Its largest 1-hour decline occurred on March 7, dropping -5.02% from $89,986.93 to $85,473.76.

These rapid moves reflect heightened market activity and potential trader sensitivity to broader macro or crypto-specific developments during that period.

Volatility Recap

• BTC Volatility had a relatively subdued start to the month, falling steadily from 57% to just over 40%. Like ETH, volatility was low in the middle third of the month before picking up - rising sharply in the last 3 days from just over 40% to monthly highs of 60% before correcting slightly to 54%. 

ETH Volatility had a turbulent start to the month - oscillating between 60% and 100% as Trump’s tariffs spooked markets. Volatility then held firm around 50-60% but have since picked up heading into the end of the month.

The Month ahead

Stats:

• 23% chance BTC < $75K on April 25 (roughly end of month) and ~25% chance > $90K
• 22% chance ETH < $1600 on April 25, 17% chance > $2K

Trump’s Tariffs will remain a wildcard for volatility - we expect April’s volatility and price movements to be most heavily tied to the Trump administration’s further escalation or calming of the trade war. 

ETH is in for a further slump as daily transactions on the chain continue to stagnate (little movement over the last 12 months) and ETF flows fail to grow. Hype and narrative may rotate back to ETH as Pectra goes live - probably by the end of Q2 and in time for ETH CC in Cannes.

BTC sentiment going into April remains mildly negative - with the 30 day skew sitting at -3%. This means traders are buying puts and/or selling calls into April, reflecting muted upside and a desire for downside insurance.