Derive Predictions Update: April 23rd 2025

Derive.xyz Predictions Update: 47% chance BTC remains above $90K by the end of May while 30% chance ETH will dip below $1,600 again

April 23, 2025 by Nick Forster

We anticipate a quieter week ahead for the major assets as attention turns to the rising narrative surrounding stablecoins.

Both Bitcoin and Ethereum implied volatilities (IV) have seen a dip. BTC's IV for May 30 has decreased nearly 5%, from 51% to just over 46%, and ETH's IV for the same expiry has dropped by 5%, now sitting at 65%.

On a more positive note, we've seen the 7 and 30-day normalized 25 delta skews gradually climb over the last two weeks. This is a mildly bullish signal, with the values at 6% and 3%, indicating a more neutral market sentiment in the short term.

Meanwhile, stablecoins are taking center stage, with Solana’s stablecoin market reaching a record high of $12.8 billion and Ethereum-based Euler gaining momentum, driven by yield-bearing stables. The developments with Circle and Bitgo pursuing banking charters further signal the growing mainstream adoption of digital assets.

Price Predictions

There’s a 47% chance that BTC remains above $90K by the end of May, with a 15% chance of it exceeding $105K.

The outlook for ETH is less optimistic. There's only a 15% chance ETH will exceed $1,800 by May's end, with a 30% chance it will dip below $1,600 again.

With the market moving towards stablecoins and some uncertainty around BTC and ETH, traders should brace for a period of calm before any potential volatility returns.