Derive Predictions Update: April 8th 2025

Derive.xyz 24-hour Market Insights: Volatility Soars Amid Trump’s Tariffs, Major Price Swings for BTC & ETH

April 8, 2025 By Dr. Sean Dawson

As we've seen in the last 24 hours, volatility has returned to the market with a vengeance. Trump's tariffs have sent shockwaves through the global economy, wreaking havoc across all asset classes, but especially in the digital space.

Crypto markets are experiencing significant price swings as traders and investors react to the turmoil, and I expect this volatility to persist in the coming weeks as the global economy adjusts to a more turbulent environment.

Over the past 24 hours, we saw $1.14 billion in liquidations, with $763 million of that coming from long positions being closed out across exchanges. This reflects the increasing pressure on the market as traders seek to reduce risk exposure amidst this growing volatility.

Ethereum

ETH saw an 11% drop, falling from $1,765 to $1,567, and briefly hitting a low of $1,431. As volatility continues to surge, we're seeing implied volatility (IV) for ETH jump from 71.5% to 122%, reflecting the market's uncertainty and fears of further chaos.

Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata

Bitcoin

BTC has also taken a hit, down 4.5%, dropping from $82,580 to $78,949, with a low of $74,773. As expected, volatility for BTC mirrored that of ETH, with its 7-day ATM IV spiking from 57% to 79%. While it's settled back at 61%, we're still seeing higher-than-average levels of market fear and uncertainty.

Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata

Price predictions

Looking ahead, the likelihood of BTC falling below $70K by May 30 has jumped 4%, now standing at 23%, up from 19% just yesterday. For ETH, the chance of it falling below $1,400 by May 30 has nearly doubled from 18% to 33% in the last 24 hours, signaling increased bearish sentiment in the market.

In short, we're in for a bumpy ride, and volatility is likely to remain high as both traditional and digital markets continue to react to these macroeconomic shocks. Traders and investors should brace for more uncertainty in the weeks to come as the market navigates these turbulent waters.