Derive Predictions Update: March 21st 2025
BTC and ETH See Modest Corrections After Brief Rally Following FOMC Decision
March 21, 2025, By Dr. Sean Dawson
After a brief rally following the FOMC decision, crypto markets have corrected slightly, with volatility stabilizing and signs of growing institutional interest.
ETH rallied from $1920 to $2060 before settling around $1970. BTC surged from $81,300 to $86,800, then fell back to $84,000, while SOL oscillated between $124 and $136, currently sitting at $127.
The brief rally followed better-than-expected messaging from the FOMC, easing fears of inflation and fewer rate cuts amid concerns about Trump’s tariffs. While the surge was positive, volatility remains mostly flat, with the market not expecting much movement in the next 7 to 30 days.
Volatility Update
The BTC 7-day and 30-day implied volatility were down to 46%, from 60-70% 10 days ago.
ETH 7-day and 30-day implied volatility were down to 59% and 60% respectively, from 82% and 102%.
Market Outlook
The chance of BTC reaching above $100K by June 30 has increased from 20% to nearly 30% in the last 24 hours. While the probability of ETH remaining above $2000 by June 30 is now a coin flip – was 40% 24 hours ago.
Nearly 60% of ETH options traded on Derive.xyz in the last 24 hours were calls bought, indicating a bullish sentiment. For BTC, 34% of all volume was bought, reflecting demand for downside protection.
While the market experiences reduced volatility, a more positive outlook is emerging, driven by increased institutional interest and growing regulatory clarity. For example Trump’s address at the Digital Asset Summit emphasized that crypto would expand the dominance of the US dollar, but no executive actions were announced yet.
Also, Tether revealed it holds $33 billion in US treasuries, making it the 7th largest buyer in 2024, highlighting growing institutional engagement in digital assets.
Another example is Pakistan becoming the first South Asian country to legalize crypto trading, which is a promising move for the broader adoption of digital assets in the region.
This continues to suggest that the crypto space is entering a phase of greater stability and potential growth.