Derive Market Insights: May 12th 2025

Derive Market Insights May 12 2025

Derive.xyz Market Insights: ETH 20% Chance of Hitting $4K by Christmas, BTC: 17% Chance of Reaching $150K

May 12, 2025 by Dr.Sean Dawson

It’s been a huge weekend for the markets. ETH was the biggest winner, rising nearly 40% from $1,800 on May 8 to nearly $2,600 on May 11. BTC also saw considerable gains, climbing from $96,000 to $103,000 during the same period. Other altcoins saw major upswings as well, such as SOL rising from $142 to $172.

Several key developments triggered these price movements. Trump’s trade announcements – including a trade deal with the UK and potential discussions with China – helped create a more bullish macroeconomic environment. The ETH Pectra upgrade went live without issues, increasing confidence in Ethereum’s ability to scale and paving the way for further institutional adoption. And the US Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold, allaying fears of a potential rate hike in the near future.

In terms of volatility, BTC and ETH have shown contrasting behavior. BTC volatility has only seen a mild rise, increasing from around 37% to 44%, suggesting a gradual market movement. ETH volatility, on the other hand, has surged dramatically from 52% to nearly 90%, before stabilizing just over 80%. This indicates that ETH is expected to experience far more explosive price movements.

BTC 7-day ATM Volatility

Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata

ETH 7-day ATM Volatility

Source: Derive.xyz, Amerdata

Price Predictions:

ETH has a 20% chance of exceeding $4,000 by Christmas (up from 9% last week) and a 12% chance of hitting $5,000.
The chance of ETH falling below $1,500 by Christmas has dropped to 15% (down from 40%).
For BTC, there’s a 7% chance of exceeding $200,000 by Christmas (up from 2%) and a 17% chance of hitting $150,000 (up from 11%).

The market is showing renewed optimism, and volatility suggests that both BTC and ETH are positioned for significant movements in the months ahead. With institutional adoption growing and macroeconomic factors stabilizing, the outlook remains bullish for the remainder of the year.