Derive Predictions Update: May 9th 2025

Derive.xyz Market Update: BTC & ETH Surge with Major Bullish Sentiment as Volatility Spikes and Market Predictions Soar

May 9, 2025 by Nick Forster

In the last 24 hours, the crypto market has seen some explosive price movements. BTC has surged 5.7%, reaching $102,900 and ETH has risen a staggering 20%, reaching $2,180.

A combination of factors has fueled this rally, including a major US/UK trade deal where Trump slashed tariffs on British cars and steel, Ethereum's Pectra upgrade going live with increased staking limits to attract institutional adoption, and the announcement of Deribit's acquisition by Coinbase for $2.9 billion.

Volatility has also spiked, particularly for Ethereum. ETH volatility shot up from 53% to 73%, while BTC volatility has increased more modestly from 38% to 44%.

ETH 7-Day ATM Volatility

Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata

BTC 7-Day ATM Volatility

Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata

Looking ahead

The chance of ETH settling above $2,500 by the end of the month has surged from 2% to 15% and the chance of BTC hitting over $115K by month-end has increased from 3% to 13%.

Longer-term predictions show strong bullish potential, with the likelihood of BTC reaching over $150K by year-end has risen to 16% from 12% while the chance of ETH exceeding $3,500 by year-end is now 17%, up from 12%.

On Derive.xyz, the sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, with 59% of all ETH premiums and 67.3% of BTC premiums being used to buy calls. Traders are clearly betting on further upside in the near-term.

Percentage of ETH premiums traded

Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata

Percentage of BTC premiums traded

Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata

This sudden surge in sentiment and market movements highlight the growing optimism in the digital asset space.