Derive.xyz Market Update: BTC Hits $118K, ETH Nears $3K as Bulls Charge on Trump’s BBB and ETF Inflows

July 14, 2025 By Nick Forster

We’ve seen a significant weekend rally across the major coins. BTC broke to new all-time highs, surging from $111,000 to $118,700, while ETH pushed up from $2,750 to nearly $3,000 at time of writing. This price strength is backed by growing market conviction and strong macro tailwinds.

Volatility Reawakens

BTC’s 7-day implied volatility (IV) rose from 30% to 40% – a meaningful jump suggesting renewed market momentum. This is the highest short-term volatility we’ve seen since mid-May.

Meanwhile, ETH’s short-dated volatility is holding steady around 65%. That stability, in the face of rising prices, tells us traders still expect significant movement, and they’re positioning accordingly.

Macro tailwinds driving risk-on sentiment

The biggest macro driver is the passing of Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill (BBB), a massive fiscal stimulus package signaling looser policy ahead. Historically, similar environments (such as during COVID) sparked sharp rallies in crypto as excess liquidity flowed into risk assets.

While there’s only a 7% chance of a Fed rate cut at the next meeting, the broader rate trajectory is clearly downward over the next 6-12 months. Lower rates make capital cheaper, driving more aggressive positioning in assets like BTC.

Add to this the record $300 million inflow into BlackRock’s ETHA ETF late last week, and it’s clear institutional appetite is building again, particularly for Ethereum.

Derive option market insights

The options flow is backing this narrative. Almost 20% of the open interest on Derive’s Sept 26 expiry for BTC is concentrated at the $130K call, suggesting traders expect gradual but persistent price rises over the next three months. 

Even more telling is that traders are betting on BTC breaking $120K by the end of the week (July 18), accounting for 10% of BTC weekend options volume. That’s a short-term, aggressive bet on further upside in the next few days.

For ETH, bullish sentiment is even more pronounced. 45% of ETH’s open interest on the July 18 expiry is concentrated on the $3,400 strike, with that one strike making up 16% of ETH weekend volume. That level of positioning shows traders are not just bullish, they’re expecting a breakout.

Price Predictions

  • 20% chance ETH >$3,600 by September 26
  • 10% chance BTC >$150K by September 26
  • 11% chance BTC >$180K by December 26

Between the fiscal backdrop, the rate outlook, and resurgent ETF flows, the market appears to be positioning for a major upward leg. While volatility remains moderate compared to 2020-21, directional conviction is growing, especially in ETH. We’re watching closely for confirmation of this trend over the coming week.