Derive.xyz Market Insights: July 4th 2025
Volatility Falls in June But Derive Traders Are Bracing for a Big July!
July 4, 2025 by Dr. Sean Dawson
ETH has held mostly flat over June, trading around $2.6K, aside from a sharp (but short-lived) dip to $2.2K after the U.S. B2 bomber fleet struck Iranian nuclear facilities. BTC, meanwhile, has trended modestly upward, moving from $105K to $107K.
Volatility
Volatility trended lower across both major coins. ETH 30-day implied volatility dropped from 68% to 60%, while BTC fell from 44% to 36%.
June’s biggest price swings were geopolitical. Major drawdowns hit during key escalation points in the Middle East on June 13 and 22. But the limited volatility spikes tell us markets were betting on limited fallout. That’s exactly what played out. The muted response in monthly volatility suggests traders correctly anticipated that hostilities would be contained.
BTC 30 day volatility
ETH 30 day volatility
The month ahead: outlook and positioning
Price predictions: There’s a 10% chance BTC will exceed $130K by the end of August, according to Derive.xyz insights. While there’s a 15% chance ETH will reach above $3.3K by the end of August.
BTC outlook: Derive data shows BTC traders are heavily positioned for a major move before July 25, but they’re split on direction. Around 50% of open interest for that expiry is concentrated on both the $130K-$135K calls and the $85K-$90K puts.
Upside catalyst for BTC to $130K:
- 25% chance of Fed rate cuts at July 29 meeting
- Further de-escalation in Iran/Gaza conflict
Downside catalyst to $90K:
- Hawkish Fed tone
- Hot inflation print
- Renewed Middle East tensions
- ETF outflows
- Miner capitulation
ETH outlook: ETH sentiment is significantly more bullish. Robinhood’s announcement of an L2 on Arbitrum for tokenized stocks in the EU could reignite the real-world asset (RWA) narrative around Ethereum.
Almost 80% of ETH call open interest for July expiry is concentrated above $3K. Incredibly, nearly 30% is on strikes above $3.5. The market is clearly expecting a breakout.
Summary
Traders are betting on a big July, with volatility suppressed and positioning split, all eyes are now on the Fed, macro data, and further geopolitical developments. ETH has the stronger momentum narrative, but BTC’s options market is coiled for a decisive move.