Derive.xyz Market Insights: June 30th 2025

ETH eyes $3K ahead of ETHCC, while BTC traders brace for downside

June 30, 2025 By Nick Forster

BTC has held mostly flat around $107K, and ETH is similarly stable at $2.45K over the weekend. Even volatility is subdued – BTC’s 7-day implied volatility ticked up just 2% to 32%, while ETH’s IV fell slightly to 57%. That calm, however, may not last.

Despite the muted price action, we’re seeing diverging sentiment between BTC and ETH options traders on Derive. For Bitcoin, the mood appears cautious: 20% of open interest is clustered around put options at $85K, $100K, and $106K for the July 11 expiry. This suggests that traders are positioning for potential downside, possibly bracing for macro uncertainty or profit-taking after recent strength.

In contrast, Ethereum traders are leaning bullish. Roughly 30% of open interest is stacked on the $2.9K call, with another 10% at $3.2K. This positioning seems to be driven by anticipation of ETHCC in Cannes – a major event historically associated with product announcements and ecosystem growth. Traders are clearly expecting catalysts that could drive upward momentum.

Over the past 24 hours, 73% of contracts traded on Derive were puts, which is another sign that BTC traders are on the defensive. Meanwhile, the broader backdrop of regulatory clarity, tokenization momentum, and the resolution of high-profile legal cases continues to support long-term optimism, particularly for ETH.

This week, all eyes are on Ethereum. While BTC sentiment cools, ETH looks poised to take center stage.

BTC trades in last 24 hours

Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata