Derive.xyz Market Insights: June 9th 2025

Nick Forster -

BTC and ETH Volatility Hits Lows; Traders Eye Short-Term Price Movements

June 9, 2025, By Dr. Sean Dawson

Prices have remained steady over the last 24 hours, though the possibility of long-term volatility has increased recently, particularly with the ongoing fallout from the Elon/Trump breakup.

  • BTC: Steady at $105,550 (up 0.5%)
  • ETH: Modestly up by 1% to $2,510
  • SOL: Down slightly, by 2% to $150

Volatility

BTC implied volatility continues to slide, reaching its lowest levels this year. This could indicate significant mispricing, offering traders opportunities to access cheap upside leverage or downside protection.

In the last 24 hours, BTC volatility has remained steady around 35% for 7-day ATM volatility and 38% for 30-day ATM volatility. The fact that short-dated volatility is lower than longer-dated volatility suggests traders are predicting larger price movements on longer timescales, and expecting sideways movements in the near term. Given the volatility of the Trump/Musk dynamic and their propensity for explosive Tweets, this could be a prime time to buy short-dated volatility.

BTC 7-day (red) and 30-day (cyan) implied volatility

Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata

Meanwhile, ETH volatility has held firm around 64% for 7-day volatility and 66% for 30-day volatility, meaning daily ETH price moves could be approximately twice as large as BTC’s.

ETH 7-day (red) and 30-day (cyan) implied volatility

Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata

Price predictions

Given BTC’s significantly lower volatility relative to ETH, the potential price ranges for BTC in Q3 are more constrained. ETH, with its heightened volatility, could break into the $3K range by the end of Q3.

  • For BTC:
    • 10% chance of BTC settling >$120K by the end of September
    • 10% chance of BTC dropping below $92K by the same date
  • For ETH:
    • 11% chance of ETH exceeding $3,200 by the end of September
    • There’s a 21% chance ETH could fall below $2,100 by the same date.

Market sentiment and trades

On Derive.xyz, traders are capitalizing on cheap volatility. In the last 24 hours, nearly 86% of all BTC contracts traded have involved traders buying either puts (67.3%) or calls (18.7%).

BTC options breakdown (in terms of contracts) by call/put bought/sold 

Source: Derive.xyz, Amberdata

The low number of options sellers indicates that many traders view volatility as underpriced. The large number of puts bought compared to calls shows a concern for downward movements, with many traders seeking significant downside protection.